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Tension will remain in the Taiwan Strait in 2021, but there will be no war

On December 31, the last day of 2020, the United States sailed through the Taiwan Strait in a rare two-ship formation, which it said was a demonstration of its commitment to keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open. What do you think is the purpose of this?

Liu Heping, special guest commentator: In my opinion, compared with the American aircraft carrier crossing the Taiwan Strait in recent years, this crossing shows so many different characteristics

First, the past time travel is very regular, that is to say, it comes once a month on a “routine” basis. However, in December 2020, the established law adhered by the US side showed signs of disorder, and it came twice a month.

Second, passing through, usually sent a warship, but this time sent two destroyers at the same time “McCain” and “Wilbur” in a two-ship formation across the Taiwan Strait.

Third, when passing through the Taiwan Strait, THE US warships usually follow the Taiwan side of the so-called “Central Line of the Taiwan Strait” or cross under the “Central Line of the Taiwan Strait”. In rare cases, they will also sail along the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait in order to send a stronger signal of deterrence to the Mainland of China. This time, however, the destroyers “took an unusual route” and were reportedly likely following the same route used last month by the mainland aircraft carrier Shandong.

In my opinion, the signal behind this is very clear. That is to say, after sending warships through the Taiwan Strait in the middle of last month, the US sent two destroyers through the Taiwan Strait in formation yesterday in response to the carrier Shandong’s passing through the Taiwan Strait on the 20th of last month. At the same time, as the PLA’s “Shandong” aircraft carrier and the “Liaoning” aircraft carrier have formed a dual carrier battle group, the US side sent the two ships through the Taiwan Strait, which should contain the meaning of countering the PLA’s “dual aircraft carriers”. In addition, on the political level, the United States believes that the purpose of Sending the Aircraft carrier Shandong across the Taiwan Strait is to deter “Taiwan independence”, so the United States will also send two destroyers to warn China that “Taiwan cannot be militarily overruled”. In other words, it implies that both China and the United States are sending political and military signals by sending warships across the Taiwan Strait.

China’s Defense ministry and Foreign Ministry responded immediately after the US sent the two warships through the Taiwan Strait, urging the US not to seriously endanger peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and send the wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” forces. What do you think of that?

Special correspondent he-ping liu: I noticed that both in Taiwan and in mainland China, has commented, in the past when American ships across the Taiwan strait, the mainland is responded by eastern war zone, and this is the response by the ministry of defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, belongs to the obvious upgrade, it mean strong warned the United States. Not only that, but the time it takes for the mainland to respond has been greatly reduced, this time within hours. All of this suggests that mainland China is very concerned about this issue and has reacted strongly to it.

In my opinion, all of these statements are suspected of being over-interpreted. In fact, whether the response comes from the Eastern theater of operations or from the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is within the responsibility of the relevant departments, and it cannot be said that a response from the Ministry of National Defense means an escalation. At the same time, there was not much of a difference between the response after a few hours and the response after half a day. In other words, none of this is a reason to think China is overreacting or that the situation has escalated. Whether China overreacts and whether the situation escalates depends on the specific content of the response. At the same time, the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the US side of seriously endangering peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and sending a wrong signal to the “Taiwan independence” forces. This is a “standard answer” response, and there is nothing excessive or out of line.

I also believe that the recent escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Straits was actually initiated by the United States unilaterally and at its own initiative. It was precisely because the United States upgraded its official exchanges with Taiwan and increased its arms sales to Taiwan that the Chinese mainland had to take a series of military countermeasures. And in recent days, especially after the US presidential election, the situation across the Taiwan Strait has actually been cooling slowly. Clearly, the Chinese are trying to create a good atmosphere for the improvement of china-us relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait before Biden takes office. Under such circumstances, what is the reason for China to overreact and escalate the situation at this critical juncture when the US is crossing the Taiwan Strait?

As a Chinese saying goes, “Nothing happens in the world, so worry about nothing.” The Taiwan Strait is originally an international waterway. Legally speaking, both Japanese merchant ships and American warships can pass through the Strait in a normal and legal way. In other words, there is no political or military significance behind this. Instead, the US has deliberately added political and military significance to it for its specific political and military purposes. In this process, the US side, in order to brush off its presence, expects China to overreact every time. Otherwise, the US side cannot achieve its political and military objectives. Under such circumstances, China will not fall for its tricks. This is called not to blame the strange to blame.

Straight News: Critics have also suggested that the Trump administration sent its twin ships across the Taiwan Strait during the transition and transfer of supreme power in the United States, a desperate and destructive move toward the end of the administration aimed at creating obstacles to a smooth transfer of power. What do you think of that?

Liu Heping, special commentator: In my opinion, this statement is also suspected of being over-interpreted and even a conspiracy theory, which attempts to link any us action on the Taiwan issue with trump’s alleged conspiracy of refusing to relinquish power. In fact, As I have said repeatedly, trump’s deep reluctance to hand over power will not have a material impact on the smooth transition of the highest authority in the United States, which has been completely institutionalized. The United States, by sending two ships through the Taiwan Strait, could not even create a ripple in the situation across the Taiwan Strait, let alone interfere with and affect the supreme transfer of power in the United States.

In my opinion, in recent months, China and the United States have been engaged in frequent confrontations on the Taiwan issue. On the one hand, this is because the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has stepped up its ties with the United States, which has added uncertainty to the situation across the Taiwan Straits. On the other hand, this uncertainty has deepened the deep-seated political and military mistrust between The US and China. The fear that China might take advantage of the chaos and confusion that beset America during the election and transition of power was the reason why America sent its twin ships across the Taiwan Strait. Similarly, it is precisely out of fear that Mr Trump will provoke a war across the Taiwan Strait to refuse to step down that China keeps issuing warnings to the US.

But those who predicted before the election that China would take Over Taiwan before it was too late have been proved wrong. Meanwhile, the idea that Mr Trump will be a “wartime president” by provoking a conflict across the Taiwan Strait and stay on for another four years is looking almost bankrupt. In addition, with the year 2020 and 2021 approaching, those who predicted that the Chinese mainland would resolve the Taiwan issue by 2021 have become rumors.

I am confident that although the situation across the Taiwan Straits will remain tense in 2021 or in the foreseeable future, it will not come to the point of war.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has sent important signals in its detailed response to the issue of “Military unification”. Straight news: Recently, tsai’s administration has caused a huge political storm on the island by preparing to open up the import of “lai pig” (American pork containing the clenbuterine ractopamine) and nuclear food (food from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster area). Why do you think Tsai Ing-wen did this?

Liu Heping, special guest commentator: Actually, this issue lies within Taiwan, but its root cause is closely related to the general international situation, especially the general situation of regional economic integration.

This general trend of regional economic integration refers to the fact that a few years ago, after Trump pulled out of the TPP agreement, the Abe administration of Japan at that time gathered more than a dozen countries in the Asia-Pacific region to sign the CPTPP agreement.

Second, more than a month ago, under the leadership of the Chinese mainland, Japan, Australia, Southeast Asian countries and other countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), also known as the RCEP. Meanwhile, the Chinese mainland has recently restarted negotiations on the China-Japan-ROK free Trade Area with Japan and the ROK.

All this means that regional economic integration across East and Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region is gaining momentum. To Taiwan’s dismay, neither the CPTPP nor the RCEP nor the China-Japan-South Korea free Trade agreement has anything to do with Taiwan, or even accelerated regional economic integration in the region. Moreover, Taiwan faces the risk of marginalization and isolation.

It is in this context that tsai Ing-wen’s administration, aware of the looming crisis, wants to open up the “pork” in exchange for the US agreeing to sign the US-Taiwan free Trade agreement with Taiwan, and open up Japan’s nuclear food in exchange for Japan’s agreeing to join THE CPTPP in the future, so as to get rid of the fate of isolation.Straight News: Taiwan opened up the import of “lai-pig” and nuclear food, why did it cause a power struggle between Tsai ing-wen and Su Tseng-chang, and it even came out that Tsai wanted to reorganize Su tseng-chang’s administration?

Liu Heping, special commentator: This is mainly because Tsai Ing-wen’s practice of opening up “lai pig” and nuclear food in exchange for the signing of free trade agreement and joining CPTPP with the US and Taiwan has not only impacted the interests of relevant industries in the island, but also may harm the health of people in the island.

According to relevant polls, more than 60% of Taiwan’s public oppose tsai ing-wen to do so. In one year’s time, Taiwan will see the “nine-in-one” elections for local county mayors, and in two years’ time a new round of elections for Taiwan’s leaders and deputies will be held.If the issue continues to simmer, it could be as damaging to the DPP as the 2018 pension reform, gay marriage and other issues.

It was under these circumstances that the administration of Tsai Ing-wen made two tactical decisions in order to avoid a crisis of marginalization of Taiwan’s economy and trade on the one hand, and on the other hand, in order to avoid hurting the DEMOCRATIC Progressive Party’s electoral situation and the political authority of Tsai Ing-wen herself.The first is that, as Taiwan is in the election gap this year and next year, it must be done in the near future both the opening of “pork meat” and nuclear food, so as to quickly clear the battlefield before the “nine-in-one” election.

Second, in order to avoid damaging The political authority of Tsai Ing-wen and affecting the overall image of the DEMOCRATIC Progressive Party, they decided to let su Tseng-chang, the head of the administrative department, take the blame for the scandal by putting him on the front line of opening up the “lai-pig” and nuclear food. That is to sacrifice Su Tseng-chang alone to save Tsai Ing-wen and save the DPP.This was sure to provoke a backlash from Su Tsangchang, who was not in favour of opening up the pig and nuclear industry, so the tsai administration announced that it would reshuffle the executive team if Su did not want to do so, in other words, bring down Su Tsangchang. This led to a power struggle between su And CAI.

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